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Voyager
Master Marine Consultant

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4690 Posts

Initially Posted - 07/28/2020 :  06:33:47  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
There’s a new tropical storm on the horizon that’s following a familiar path we’ve seen in the past several years.

Gonzalo has come and gone, but this one has better than 60% odds of becoming a Category 1 and beyond and is expected to hit the Windward Islands/ Lesser Antilles, then Puerto Rico, Hispañola, the entire Bahamas chain, threaten the East Coast of the US, ping the NC outer banks, then take aim at Long Island, CT and Cape Cod, finally moving into the Gulf of Maine and the Canadian Maritimes. This development is expected to take place over the course of the next 7-10 days.

Now, with ‘Canes, anything is possible especially over the course of many days, however the US and European Spaghetti Models are pretty consistent on this one based on the very static Bermuda High pressure center we’ve been suffering with for the past 7 days. HHHs

Mike’s Weather Page gives a pretty good rundown https://spaghettimodels.com/

He uses several NOAA NWS products as well as Hurricane alley based TV meteorology pages.

He provides a nice series of discussions on the page as well as on social media (FB).

Looks like we’re off to the races early this year! We’re not even up to August 1, midsummer, and the tropics are heating up (literally!)

Bruce Ross
Passage ~ SR-FK ~ C25 #5032

Port Captain — Milford, CT

Davy J
Master Marine Consultant

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1512 Posts

Response Posted - 07/28/2020 :  08:27:20  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
As a resident of Florida for about 26 years now..........

Any prediction, at this point, is a waste of time.

The Euro model that Windy uses, as of it right now, has it getting pretty torn up by DR and Cuba.

Of course, in three days, all of the models will say something else.

Get prepared, but don't worry about anything this far out.





Davy J


2005 Gemini 105Mc
PO 1987 C25 #5509 SR/SK
Tampa Bay
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Voyager
Master Marine Consultant

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4690 Posts

Response Posted - 07/29/2020 :  19:19:45  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Davy, your view was exactly spot on a day ago, but looking at the intensity numbers, it’s expected to rebuild into a Cat 1 or 2 by the time it gets to North Carolina, then it’s headed toward the area near Cape Cod known as 40-70. It’s a spot directly at the confluence of the chilly Labrador Current and the very warm Gulf Stream. This position is known to produce “bomb cyclones” and nor’easters.
Of course this could become a nothing burger (hopefully) but only time will tell.

Bruce Ross
Passage ~ SR-FK ~ C25 #5032

Port Captain — Milford, CT
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Davy J
Master Marine Consultant

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1512 Posts

Response Posted - 07/30/2020 :  02:34:43  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
So far the two most used models are way apart.

Yesterday the Euro had the storm meandering through the Florida straits then into the Gulf, and the GFS had it coming up the east coast of Florida.

This morning, the Euro has it heading to Miami as a weak storm then across the Everglades, then pop back out into the Gulf. The GFS has it staying off the east coast of Florida, but..... becoming a much stronger storm.

My guess is that tomorrow morning, things will have changed again.

Funny, having followed these things for a long time, we start to "root for" one of the models or the other. More times than not, it is the Euro. In this case we are rooting for the GFS......




Davy J


2005 Gemini 105Mc
PO 1987 C25 #5509 SR/SK
Tampa Bay
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Voyager
Master Marine Consultant

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4690 Posts

Response Posted - 07/30/2020 :  14:35:25  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
FYI, I read a news article about 3 months ago that the GFS model was unintentionally flawed somewhat by a more simplistic and less costly design, while the Euro model received more extensive investment.

My local TV meteorologist has demonstrated that the Euro model has been more accurate by comparing predictions to outcomes.

Nonetheless, it’s good to have varying predictions even if they’re not correct to make sure the public remains vigilant to life-threatening conditions and don’t become complacent.

Of course, it’s best not to “cry wolf” too often or else you’ll lose the public trust.

Should be noted that NOAA/NWS has been working to improve their batting average in the past year and will likely make the needed investments soon.

Chaos theory isn’t easy and because it’s computationally intensive, you need to dedicate a TON of horsepower to the task.

I believe someone compared it to predicting the effect of the flutter of a butterfly’s wing in Africa on the force of a hurricane in Miami.

Bruce Ross
Passage ~ SR-FK ~ C25 #5032

Port Captain — Milford, CT
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Voyager
Master Marine Consultant

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4690 Posts

Response Posted - 07/31/2020 :  21:49:59  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Now we see that the storm is a Cat 1 aiming for the East Coast of Florida, then heading up toward NC.

The storm then goes back out over the ocean and drives over to Long Island and CT on Tuesday evening. It should be a tropical storm then.

The difference between the GFS and Euro models is GFS says the storm arrives earlier, and passes more quickly with a minimum of rain. Euro says that the storm slows down and drops a lot more rain in NY and CT. If I get more than 3” of rain in an hour or two, the creek rises and we have to breakout the sandbags and canoes. Hope it doesn’t come to that.

We shall see.

Bruce Ross
Passage ~ SR-FK ~ C25 #5032

Port Captain — Milford, CT
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Davy J
Master Marine Consultant

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1512 Posts

Response Posted - 08/01/2020 :  02:57:13  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
The two models this morning now have the track of the storm taking the same course.

Things will get sporty on the east coast and for the Carolinas. Good thing it hasn't had time to get to cat 3 or 4.

As for the computer models, both were indicating hitting DR and Cuba. It went well to the east of DR and Cubans were drinking coffee and looking to the east........

Davy J


2005 Gemini 105Mc
PO 1987 C25 #5509 SR/SK
Tampa Bay
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islander
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
3795 Posts

Response Posted - 08/01/2020 :  07:07:07  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Looks like everyone on the east coast is going to get a piece of this one.

Scott-"IMPULSE"87'C25/SR/WK/Din.#5688
Sailing out of Glen Cove,L.I Sound


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Stinkpotter
Master Marine Consultant

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Djibouti
8638 Posts

Response Posted - 08/01/2020 :  09:41:35  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Bullseye on Mystic (as of 11 AM today)--as a tropical storm (forecast at 40-50 mph from the east). Long Island Sound and my Mystic River shorline should expect a surge. But the "cone" still reaches from PA and Upstate NY to 100 miles off-shore. And other storms like this have broken out of the cone and made unexpected turns toward Portugal...

Dave Bristle
Association "Port Captain" for Mystic, CT
PO of 1985 C-25 SR/FK #5032 Passage, ex-USCG-OUPV
Now on Eastern 27 Sarge (but still sailing when I can).

Passage, Mystic, and Sarge--click to enlarge.
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Stinkpotter
Master Marine Consultant

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Djibouti
8638 Posts

Response Posted - 08/01/2020 :  15:19:59  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Forecast shifting slightly westward...
Edit: ...and even further, which centers him over land from NC on up. In that case, much of the excitement is pretty much over up here, except for the rain in his NW quadrant. But the jury's still out...

Dave Bristle
Association "Port Captain" for Mystic, CT
PO of 1985 C-25 SR/FK #5032 Passage, ex-USCG-OUPV
Now on Eastern 27 Sarge (but still sailing when I can).

Passage, Mystic, and Sarge--click to enlarge.

Edited by - Stinkpotter on 08/01/2020 20:53:15
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Steve Milby
Past Commodore

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USA
5521 Posts

Response Posted - 08/03/2020 :  07:19:51  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Looking like a direct hit on the Chesapeake Bay, and here I sit in Ohio. My big boat is on the hard and covered in a well sheltered marina. It should be ok unless it gets blown off the jackstands or the cover gets shredded.

The Cal 25 is in its slip in the heart of Annapolis. The forecast I've received is for storm surge about 4 ft above MLW tomorrow. Friends will adjust my docklines, so it too should be ok unless a nearby boat breaks loose and drifts into it, or unless the whole dock gets uprooted.

I hope I don't see my Cal 25 on the news, in pieces, in a pile of crumpled fiberglass. This is when we appreciate our insurance!

Steve Milby C&C 35 Landfall ("Captiva Wind"); Cal 25 ("Fahrvergnügen")
Past Commodore
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Steve Milby
Past Commodore

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USA
5521 Posts

Response Posted - 08/04/2020 :  08:39:37  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
We got lucky. The storm was downgraded to a tropical storm, and it has already passed north of the Chesapeake Bay. Since I haven't heard anything from my friends or the marina manager this morning, I expect my boats are safe. I hope others are as well.

Steve Milby C&C 35 Landfall ("Captiva Wind"); Cal 25 ("Fahrvergnügen")
Past Commodore
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Voyager
Master Marine Consultant

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4690 Posts

Response Posted - 08/04/2020 :  18:22:37  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Here in Western Connecticut, we got about 4 hours of tropical force sustained winds here by Long Island Sound, plus 55 mph gusts. Lots of broken tree limbs and fallen trees.

Not much rain here but there were flooding conditions about 50-75 miles west of us.

We had three or four tornado warnings based on Doppler Radar spin signatures. Not sure whether actual tornados were spotted on the ground around here.

My marina reported no incidents on their docks, however, nearby a sailboat’s improperly furled headsail got shredded in about 10 minutes at the worst.

Another boat out on the individual floating docks nearby worked itself loose and ended up in the mud banks.
I believe I know which boat got loose, as it always seems to be poorly secured to its mooring.

Several stinkpots’ biminis got shredded.

I have not been to my boat but no news is thankfully good news.

Bruce Ross
Passage ~ SR-FK ~ C25 #5032

Port Captain — Milford, CT
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bigelowp
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
1534 Posts

Response Posted - 08/05/2020 :  17:51:35  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
An interesting storm. In CT more people (700,000)lost power than during Sandy! Most roads, especially in the western half of the state are a mess. I think right along the sound may have fared better than inland. Am out of state so have not been down to cheek the fleet, but as I have not received a call, I am cautiously optimistic!

Peter Bigelow
C-25 TR/FK #2092 Limerick
Rowayton, Ct
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Voyager
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
4690 Posts

Response Posted - 08/05/2020 :  21:26:45  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Yeah, the storm did a number on a lot of us. Milford harbor made it through pretty well however one 35ft sailboat tore free of its mooring and ping-ponged up the harbor to land on a large mud flat, leaning way over on its side.
The prop and rudder also got fouled by a tree branch. A few guys were on site trying to get it righted and pulled off the mud during the full moon tide yesterday. A workboat came by finally and helped them kedge it off.

On Passage I need to reinstall my headsail on the furler. Everything else was fine.

Bruce Ross
Passage ~ SR-FK ~ C25 #5032

Port Captain — Milford, CT

Edited by - Voyager on 08/07/2020 04:20:08
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bigelowp
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
1534 Posts

Response Posted - 08/06/2020 :  11:26:49  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Bruce:

After a hurricane maybe a dozen years ago a friend who has a house on the water in the cove Limerick is moored discovered an @35 ft sailboat up against his sea wall. He had the police look up who the boat was owned by and called the gentleman, who responded "impossible, my boat is on it's mooring in Milford Harbor . . . ." well, it broke mooring, sailed WEST, into a cove, and landed intact against this sea wall. Took a crane to lift and move it back into water, but funny how storms can move boats in strange ways that break mooring. He was lucky, others less so.

Peter Bigelow
C-25 TR/FK #2092 Limerick
Rowayton, Ct
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islander
Master Marine Consultant

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USA
3795 Posts

Response Posted - 08/06/2020 :  17:12:46  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Just got my power turned back on. PSE&G is getting hammered with poor marks. Once again my little Honda generator saved the day.

Scott-"IMPULSE"87'C25/SR/WK/Din.#5688
Sailing out of Glen Cove,L.I Sound


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